2016

Mike Simpson, Jim Hall, Edoardo Borgomeo, Ives MC, Susana Almeida, Kingsborough A, Theo Economou, David Stephenson, Thorsten Wagener Decision analysis for management of natural hazards. Annual Review of Environment and Resources.

Laura Dawkins, David Stephenson, Lockwood JF, Maisey PE The 21st Century Decline in Damaging European Windstorms. NHESS.

Isabella Gollini, Jonathan Rougier Rapidly bounding the exceedance probabilities of high aggregate losses. Journal of Operational Risk.

Francesca Pianosi, Thorsten Wagener Understanding the time-varying importance of different uncertainty sources in hydrological modelling using global sensitivity analysis. Hydrological Processes.

Mark Woodhouse, Hogg AJ, Jeremy Phillips A global sensitivity analysis of the PlumeRise model of volcanic plumes. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research.

Kate Wilkins, Benedetti A, Kristiansen NI, and Lange AC. Applications of satellite observations of volcanic ash in atmospheric dispersion modeling. In Volcanic Ash: Hazard Observation, Chapter 13, Mackie, S, Cashman, K. V., Ricketts, H., Rust, A., and Watson, I. M., editors, Elsevier.

Kate Wilkins, Western LM, Matt Watson Simulating the 2011 Grímsvötn ash cloud using a data insertion update scheme. Atmospheric Environment 141, 48-59.

Sheldrake TE, Sparks RSJ,  Cashman KV, Wadge G, Willy Aspinall Similarities and differences in the historical records of lava dome-building volcanoes: Implications for understanding magmatic processes and eruption forecasting. Earth-Science Reviews 160, 240-263.

Bamber JL, Willy Aspinall, Cooke RM A commentary on “how to interpret expert judgment assessments of twenty-first century sea-level rise” by Hylke de Vries and Roderik SW van de Wal. Climatic Change 137 (3), 321-328.

Willy Aspinall Volcano statistics casebook: Tentative evidence from two near real-time analyses for an earth tide influence on volcano-seismic events. Statistics in Volcanology 2.2, 1-13.

Willy Aspinall, Cooke RM, Havelaar AH, Hoffmann S, Hald T Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases. PLoS ONE 11 (3).

Sarrazin F, Francesca Pianosi, Thorsten Wagener Global Sensitivity Analysis of environmental models: Convergence and validation. Environmental Modelling and Software 79, 135-152.

Ann Kretzschmar, Tych W, Chappell N, Keith Beven Reversing hydrology: Quantifying the temporal aggregation effect of catchment rainfall estimation using sub-hourly data. Hydrology Research 47 (3), 630-645.

Westerberg I, Thorsten Wagener, Coxon G, McMillan H,  Castellarin A, Montanari A, and Jim Freer. Uncertainty in hydrological signatures for gauged and ungauged catchments. Water Resources Research 52 (3), 1847-1865.

Katsu Goda, Kamilla Abilova. Tsunami hazard warning and risk prediction based on inaccurate earthquake source parameters. NHESS 16, 577-593.

Hald T, Willy Aspinall, Devleesschauwer B, Cooke R, Corrigan T, Havelaar AH, et al. World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation. PLoS ONE 11(1).

Kate Wilkins, Matt Watson, Kristiansen NI,  Webster HN, Thomson DJ, Dacre HF,  Prata, A.J. Using data insertion with the NAME model to simulate the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud. Journal of Geophysical Research 121 (1), 306-323.

Keith Beven. EGU Leonardo Lecture: Facets of Hydrology – epistemic error, non-stationarity, likelihood, hypothesis testing, and communication.  Hydrological Sciences Journal 61 (9), 1652-1665.

Giuliani, M., Castelletti, A., Francesca Pianosi, Mason, E., and Reed, P. Curses, Tradeoffs, and Scalable Management: Advancing Evolutionary Multiobjective Direct Policy Search to Improve Water Reservoir Operations. J. Water Resources Planning and Management 142 (2).

James Savage, Paul Bates, Jim Freer, Neal J, Aronica G When does spatial resolution become spurious in probabilistic flood inundation predictions? Hydrological Processes 30 (13), 2014-2032.

Ficchì A, Raso L, Dorchies D, Francesca Pianosi, Malaterre P, Van Overloo, ., and Jay-Allemand M Optimal Operation of the Multireservoir System in the Seine River Basin Using Deterministic and Ensemble Forecasts. J. Water Resources Planning and Management 142 (1).

2015

Mark Woodhouse, Hogg A, Jeremy Phillips, and Jonathan Rougier Uncertainty analysis of a model of wind-blown volcanic plumes. Bulletin of Volcanology 77, 83.

Edoardo Borgomeo, Pflug, G, Jim Hall, and Hochrainer-Stigler, S. Assessing water resource system vulnerability to unprecedented hydrological drought using copulas to characterize drought duration and deficit. Water Resources Research 51 (11), 8927-8948.

Gordon Woo and Willy Aspinall Thirty-Year Bayesian Updating of PSHA for Hinkley Point NPP. CSNI Workshop on “Testing PSHA Results and Benefit of Bayesian Techniques for Seismic Hazard Assessment”. Pavia, Italy: EU Centre Foundation.

Bevilacqua A, Isaia R, Neri A, Vitale S, Willy Aspinall, et al Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: I. Vent opening maps. Journal of Geophysical Research – Solid Earth 120 (4), 2309-2329.

Neri A, Bevilacqua A, Esposti OngaroT, Isaia R, Willy Aspinall et al Quantifying volcanic hazard at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: II. Pyroclastic density current invasion maps. Journal of Geophysical Research – Solid Earth 120 (4), 2330-2349.

Katsu Goda, Jie Song. Uncertainty modelling and visualization for tsunami hazard and risk mapping: a case study for the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment.

Gemma Coxon, Jim Freer, Ida Westerberg, Thorsten Wagener, Ross Woods, Paul Smith. A novel framework for discharge uncertainty quantification applied to 500 UK gauging stations. Water Resources Research 51 (7), 5531-5546.

Edoardo Borgomeo, Christopher Farmer and Jim Hall. Numerical rivers: A synthetic streamflow generator for water resources vulnerability assessments. Water Resources Research 51 (7), 5382-5405.

Kelleher C, Thorsten Wagener, McGlynn B Model-based analysis of the influence of catchment properties on hydrologic partitioning across five mountain headwater sub-catchments. Water Resources Research 51 (6), 4109-4136.

Hartmann A, Gleeson T, Rosolem R, Francesca Pianosi, Thorsten Wagener. A large-scale simulation model to assess groundwater recharge over Europe’s karst regions. Geoscientific Model Development 8, 1729-1746.

Engwell S, Willy Aspinall, Sparks RSJ An objective method for the production of isopach maps and implications for the estimation of tephra deposit volumes and their uncertainties. Bulletin of Volcanology 77, 61.

Keith Beven. What we see now: event-persistence in predicting the responses of hydro-eco-geomorphological systems? Ecological Modelling 298, 4-15.

Keith Beven, Cloke H, Pappenberger F, Lamb R, Hunter N Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface. SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences 58 (1), 25-35.

Francesca Pianosi,  Sarrazin F, Thorsten Wagener. A Matlab toolbox for Global Sensitivity Analysis. Environmental Modelling & Software 70, 80-85.

Francesca Pianosi, Thorsten Wagener. A simple and efficient method for global sensitivity analysis based on cumulative distribution functions.  Environmental Modelling & Software 67, 1-11.

Keith Beven, Paul Smith. Concepts of information content and likelihood in parameter calibration for hydrological simulation models.  J. Hydrol. Eng. 20 (1), A4014010.

Hodge M, Biggs J, Katsuichiro Goda, Willy Aspinall.  Assessing infrequent large earthquakes using geomorphology and geodesy: the Malawi Rift.  Nat. Hazards 76 (3), 1781–1806.

Ellie Scourse, Willy Aspinall, Chapman N Using expert elicitation to characterise long-term tectonic risks to radioactive waste repositories in Japan. J. Risk Research 18 (3), 364-377.

Keith Beven, Lamb L, Leedal D, Hunter N Communicating uncertainty in flood risk mapping: a case study. Int. J. River Basin Management 13 (3), 285-295.

2014

Keith Beven, Lamb R. The uncertainty cascade in model fusion.  In Riddick, A., Kessler, H. & Giles, J. (eds) Integrated Environmental Modelling to Solve Real World Problems: Methods, Vision and Challenges. Geological Society, London, Special Publications 408.

Kate Wilkins, Mackie S, Matthew Watson, Webster HN, Thomson DJ, Dacre HF Data insertion in volcanic ash cloud forecasting. Annals of Geophysics, 57 Fast Track 2.

Keith Beven. Here we have a system in which liquid water is moving; let’s just get at the physics of it’ (Penman 1965). Hydrology Research 45 (6), 727-736.

Edoardo Borgomeo, Jim Hall, Fung F, Watts G, Colquhoun K, Lambert C Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties. Water Resources Research 50 (8), 6850-6873.

Ida Westerberg, L. Gong, Keith Beven, J. Seibert, A. Semedo, C.-Y. Xu, and S. Halldin. Regional water balance modelling using flow-duration curves with observational uncertainties. Hydrology & Earth System Sciences 18, 2993–3013.

Ann Kretzschmar, Tych W, Chappell N Reversing hydrology: Estimation of sub-hourly rainfall time-series from streamflow. Environmental Modelling & Software 60, 290-301.

Massmann C, Thorsten Wagener, Holzmann H A new approach to visualizing time-varying sensitivity indices for environmental model diagnostics across evaluation time-scales. Environmental Modelling & Software 51, 190-194.

Roberts JF, Laura Dawkins, Youngman B, Champion A, Shaffrey L, Thornton H, David Stephenson, Hodges KI, Stringer M The XWS open access catalogue of extreme windstorms in Europe from 1979 to 2012. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 14, 2487-2501.

Keith Beven, Younger P, Jim Freer Struggling with Epistemic Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling of Natural Hazards. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty, Modeling, and Analysis (ISUMA): 13-22.  

Keith Beven, Paul Smith Rethinking Concepts of Information Content of Hydrological Data to Account for Epistemic Errors. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty, Modeling, and Analysis (ISUMA): 263-272.   

James Savage, Paul Bates, Jim Freer, Neal J, Aronica G The Impact of Scale on Probabilistic Flood Inundation Maps Using a 2D Hydraulic Model with Uncertain Boundary Conditions. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty, Modeling, and Analysis (ISUMA): 279-289.

Francesca Pianosi, Thorsten Wagener, Jonathan Rougier, Jim Freer, Jim Hall. Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: A Systematic Review with Practical Workflow. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty, Modeling, and Analysis (ISUMA): 290-299.

Katsu Goda, Thorsten Wagener, William Aspinall. Anatomy of Natural Hazard Analysis: Uncertainty Propagation and Visualization. Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty, Modeling, and Analysis (ISUMA): 1105-1115.

2013

Keith Beven, Binley A. GLUE: 20 years on. Hydrological Processes 28 (24), 5897-5918.

Keith Beven. So how much of your error is epistemic? Lessons from Japan and Italy. Hydrological Processes 27 (11), 1677-1680.